People in car crashes vs. people in bike crashes for Baltimore City by age.
The question came up just how safe is it to bike in Baltimore? So I thought some graphs were in order:
Crashes:
Background: It has been observed the more people drive (Vehicle Miles Traveled or VMT) the more traffic crashes there were and conversely the lower VMT (as has been observed in recent years) the fewer traffic crashes. So this has lead to the notion of "exposure", that is to say the more there is of something out there the more accidents there will be. This works fine for automobiles but not so well for bike/ped issues.
There are some stats that show when VMT goes does down bike and pedestrian crashes go down as well and there are stats that show despite increasing the number of cyclists (increasing their exposure) the crash and fatality counts remain near constant.
Comments on the charts: So the way I look at things are the charts on the left, which is just comparing raw counts. I supplied the charts on the right for those who insist there is no such thing as the safety in numbers phenomena and insist that the more cyclists, the more crashes. So if there where the same number of cyclists as drivers at the current crash ratios per mode share were maintained, this is how it would look.
Of course what stands out is biking for kids in this city is dangerous (more K-12 bike education please), otherwise not really dangerous if you know the rules of the road. I'l agree there are some stinky driver's attitudes out there but they don't make the place unsafe, just annoying.
Injury
Again, I think the chart on the left represent relative risk of injury but even if we greatly exaggerate our small numbers to get them on par with the number of drivers, the chart on the right comes out near 50:50 with some wild fluctuation (due to the small sample size of cyclists.) Of course I am ignoring the issue for younger kids, which is more complex then what I can give it justice here.
Fatalities:
Again, I think the chart on the left represent relative risk of death. The chart on the right is what one cycling death to 28 that died in cars in Baltimore looks like with the same "exposure". Over the years different aged cyclists have died so that age slot is not really representative of what to expect in the future but on average just one cyclist has died per year in Baltimore. Yes that is a tragedy but is it worst then the 28 that have died in a automobile?
So if I have failed to convince your relative risk is the charts on the left, the fatality chart on the right is the worse I can realistically contrive and even so there are a lot of empty age bands with no cyclists deaths but with people in cars deaths. Also bear in mind if we double the cycling mode share (with near the same crash counts) the red bars on the right charts would be cut in half. Baltimore is behind the curve for a major city bike lane miles as well as the bike mode share so I hope over time as we get more cyclists out on the streets even the charts on the right will look more favorable for cyclists.
In conclusion: If you are still feeling intimidated cycling in Baltimore, please see our collection of links Must read for bike safety
Crash data from: MHSO Select Benchmark Reports
Mode share from: American Community Survey, Commuting Characteristics by Sex