Per capita VMT drops for ninth straight year; DOTs taking notice

By Chris McCahill, State Smart Transportation Initiative

Estimates released by FHWA on Friday suggest that per capita vehicle miles of travel dropped again in 2013, making it the ninth consecutive year of decline (Figure 1). Total VMT in the United States increased by 0.6 percent from 2012, hovering just below 3 trillion, and per capita VMT dropped to 9,402 (the prior year’s initial estimate was revised to 9,412).

Figure 1. VMT trends for the United States through 2013. Source: FHWA and Census Bureau.

Maryland is an example of this trend. In 2009, the state’s long-range plan projected statewide VMT growth of 2 percent per year through 2030 (Figure 2). The plan dismissed the recent decline as a temporary consequence of high fuel prices and the economic downturn, asserting, “there is no clear evidence that Marylanders will continue to drive less in the future.” However, in its updated plan released just last month, the agency has left out projections entirely, declaring that “a return to strong annual VMT growth is unlikely and per capita VMT [...] is actually decreasing.” A handful of other states have either dampened their projections or shifted their focus toward VMT reduction goals and transportation demand management efforts.

Figure 2. VMT in Maryland and projected VMT from state long-range plans. Source: FHWA and Maryland Department of Transportation