Thoughts on bike safety not like playing Russian Roulette at all
With it being Bike Month and all and people looking into biking more here are some of my thoughts on bike safety on roads:
For some reason we think exposure (the amount of miles or time spent) in traffic has an influential affect on safety. The longer you are out there the higher your chance of getting into an accident, sort of like playing Russian Roulette every time you want go somewhere each mile is another spin of the chamber and click of the hammer. But what if that is not a good analogy at all?
First it helps to understand where the concept comes from. As we look at automobile use we see the number of miles driven increasing three times the rate of the population, so it is hardly fair to compare raw total crash counts of today with that of ten years ago. So how do we compare? At first glance miles driven seems like a good idea but think about it, just because you have to drive further to do the same daily chores families did 10 years ago does that make your life safer? Hardly.
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The next problem with exposure being like playing Russian Roulette is those that drive the most have the fewest accidents and something similar has been found with cyclist as well, the more experience they have the fewer accidents they have. This does not fit the playing Russian Roulette every mile model at all. So what does fit?
Before I get into a different way of looking at traffic fatality counts I want to point out two significant observations; one is the counts have been basically static over the last 10 years and two, as far as cycling accidents go, a lot of cyclists were doing something incredibly stupid like riding head long into traffic. That's like standing underneath a tree to avoid being hit by lightning.
But if no one told us not to stand under a tree during a thunderstorm, wouldn't we stand under a tree? That is unless you understood how lighting works, similarly there are a lot of misconceptions what constitutes safe cycling. If I told you that one of the most popular "safe" cycling myths was for the cyclists to be like a jack-in-the-box and pop out unexpectedly into traffic, you would look at me and say that's crazy, no one thinks that. But that is exactly what sidewalk cycling is, while on the sidewalk is just like Jack while in the box, hidden from the attention of drivers. Start to cross a street or driveway and all of a sudden the cyclist has "popped" out into traffic.
Lets try another way to look at things; lets say you have just won a free vacation with two options: Behind door number one; an extremely popular beach resort with standing room only on the beach, all the good motels are booked so you will probably have to stay in some dive and one person randomly dies every day for no apparent reason. But wait, that's not all. Book now and win a chance to be a part of our daily drawing five days a week to participate in our marketing campaign "If you're not in our luxurious accommodations, you could be next." Think how much fun it will be for you and your family to snuff out a local and remember to please buckle up for your safety. Or behind door number two; A relatively unknown resort area with acres of beach all to yourself with an adorable B&B and one person dies every other month, largely by standing under a tree during a lightning storm.
For those of us who do ride that's our choice, door number one; be stuck in traffic and be part of Maryland's one a day traffic death toll and close to one a day collateral damage of driving or door number two; ride our bikes and be free of congestion, free to smell flowers and be part of the 0.016 a day bike fatalities, it's your choice.
For those of you who insist on "playing the odds" this is roughly what Maryland looks like currently:
Fatalities:population
Cars 394:2,351,561 reduced 1:5,968
Bikes 7:842,359 reduced 1:120,337
Collateral damage of cars 213 so adding that in we have:
Cars 607:2,351,561 reduced 1:3874
Additional reading: How to Avoid Traffic Accidents by Ken Kifer <a href="http://www.kenkifer.com/bikepages/traffic/accident.htm">http://www.kenkifer.com/bikepages/traffic/accident.htm</a>;